Ivan Toney Scout Report: From Newcastle loanee to Championship Top Goal Scorer
Analysing Toney's first season for the Brentford F.C
It’s been a meteoric rise in the last few seasons for Brentford striker Ivan Toney. As a Newcastle loanee, Toney had his time bouncing around the lower divisions for teams like Northampton, Barnsley and Scunthorpe United but eventually found himself getting a permanent transfer to Peterborough United in August 2018. Scoring 16 goals and providing 3 assists in the 2018/19 season and 24 goals and 4 assists in the following season, Championship clubs were chomping at the bit to sign the young striker. Snubbing moves to Premier League sides like West Bromwich Albion, Toney chose his destination to be the well-run London side, Brentford, likely because of Brentford’s successful season prior and for the opportunity to use the club as a spring board to move to a Premier League side where he can more likely get significant first team football after making a step up to the Championship.
Currently sitting top of the Championship in goals (23) and joint top with assists (9), Toney has become a vital cog in the Brentford machine, participating in 58% of Brentford’s goals since joining the side on 31st August 2020. Standing at 179cm and weighing 70kg, Toney’s home is often in the opposition’s penalty box where he finds himself on the end of attacking moves, and while it’s clear when looking at his heat map for the Bees this season and at the underlying statistics, which I will go into detail later on in this piece, that he is capable of dropping deep and helping to build up the play, it’s in these higher, more threatening positions where Toney thrives.
As we go through the article, we’ll take a closer look at Toney’s game and understand what the underlying numbers suggest about his approach. To conclude, we’ll consider whether or not Toney will be playing for Brentford or not in the Premier League next season, which he is destined to do from what will be discussed later in this piece. What we also know is that with the scoring record that he’s on at the moment, he’s defiantly a player Newcastle would’ve been wise to keep back in 2018, seeing as they may be swapping places with Brentford in the Championship next season!
Attacking Play
While we know that Ivan Toney has been successful in front of goal, the next question has to be, “how is he so successful in front of goal?”
Comparing Toney’s actual goal tally with his xG, you already get the sense of how good of a season the 24 year old is having. With an xG of 18.13, Toney should be 2nd in the Championship top scorers if this was his actual output, beaten by Blackburn’s Adam Armstrong who sits on an xG of 20.96. What this is at least partly down to is Toney’s exceptional finishing from quality areas on the pitch which emphasises his movement and positioning from his heat map.
While showing some ability and confidence to get a shot on target from outside the box, it’s within the box where the magic happens for Toney. While only 5’10”, Toney is showing an ability to operate in the penalty box regardless of the size of opposition defenders he’s facing regardless of the situations in the game. This point is worth emphasising because, even though Toney has scored during counter attacks, whereby there are fewer defenders for him to get past, playing in a side that averages the 5th highest average possession in their matches requires Toney to be able to operate against many sides who utilise the low-block and in doing so, pack the penalty box.
Even with this goal scoring in the penalty box, the fact that Toney is only averaging 3.57 touches in the penalty box, putting him 27th in the league in average touches in the box per 90, meaning that when he is in these positions, he usually isn’t hesitating in taking the shot on first time.
Passing Combinations and Defensive Contributions
As was shown in the heat map, Ivan Toney also contributes in deeper areas of the pitch, helping in the build up of the attacking phase for Brentford through his passing combinations with his teammates. As well as this, Toney also contributes in the defensive phase, often being the first line of defence against opposition.
Contributing to the build up and retention of the ball with an attempted passing average of 16.45 per 90, Toney has displayed a promising accuracy in those passes, with 73.4% of those meeting their target. What you’ll find from these passes however is that there isn’t a particular trend in these passes - for example, he doesn’t tend to direct his passes to any one side of the pitch or up or down from where he is positioned with the ball. Looking at the statistical proof behind this, Toney is attempting 4.12 forward passes per 90 with 64.8% of them on target, and 3.96 back passes with a success rate of 84.6%, suggesting that while he’s capable of playing to his back to goal in his back passes, he’s also capable of dropping deep and passing onto overlapping players who try to fill the forward vacant position.
In terms of who Toney is receiving passes from and who he is passing to, there is a similar trend in that there is no particular trend - with the 3 examples below showing that Toney is capable of working with players across his team in many different positions depending on the type of opposition that he is facing.
Brentford (3) v Reading (1) 10/02/21 - Best friends from the back
Looking at the passing combinations involving Toney, the top 4 combinations only involved passes from the Brentford back 4. While passes from both Rico Henry and Henrik Dalsgaard can vary between crosses, low passes and floating balls, the passes from the centrebacks of Ethan Pinnock and Mads Bech Sørensen reveal a surprising side to Toney’s game, given his physical limitations. Often receiving lofted passes from these players, Toney’s 7.15 aerial duels attempted with a 41.4% win rate while only being 5’10” resembles the aerial prowess of Shane Long in his prime, while he also only stood at 5’9”. These passes from deeper positions didn’t result in any assists for Toney in his attacking movements; instead it was Toney who was able to set up two assists for Josh Dasilva in the end.
In a game like this, where Brentford dominated possession, these passes from deep to Toney are often attempts at progressing the play in a more direct way rather than shot-creating chances as Reading would be more tightly compact and in a low-block without the ball. When progressing in this more direct way however, this provided Toney with the opportunities to link up play with onrushing midfielders like Dasilva - fully utilising Toney’s aerial abilities and passing proficiency.
Brentford (4) v Middlesbrough (1) 06/02/21 - Short and Long
During this match against Middlesbrough, Toney displayed the true variety of passes he receives with players like Vitaly Janelt; playing from midfield, David Raya; who launched direct balls as goalkeeper, and Sergi Canós; the substitute forward who played alongside Toney.
The clear variety of passes towards Toney in this game was part of the problems for the Middlesbrough defenders, as Toney was able to score 2 goals and provide an assist during the game. Much like the Reading game, Brentford dominated possession in this match with 61% however, the problem that comes with having a variety of passes to forwards like Toney in a match like this is that the accuracy of those passes can often miss their intended target. With a 78% pass accuracy, Brentford often struggled to cut through Neil Warnock’s Middlesbrough side, a reflection of Warnock’s sides that have been described as hard to play through and stubborn in their playing style. This willingness to play through Toney saw success however, and although it came at the risk of losing possession often, Brentford were able to cut through Middlesbrough this time.
These passing combinations during this match highlight a willingness of Toney to drop deep and contribute to attacking movements in these positions, bringing players further up the field. Against a side like Middlesbrough who maintain a solid and compact defensive line as is shown in their average positions this game below, this movement away from the defensive line becomes necessary to break the side down, as it can possibly drag a defender out of position or give Toney enough time to pass out wide or to a supporting midfielder.
Brentford (2) v Bournemouth (1) 30/12/20 - Forward Friends
One of the few times this season where Toney failed to score or produce an assist, what is clear from his heatmap (below) this match is that his involvement in deeper positions combined with his passes to other forwards in Bryan Mbuemo and Sergi Canós allowed those players to fill into Toney’s vacated forward position, helping lead to Mbuemo’s assist.
Watching the match, it’s the threat that Toney presented Bournemouth which provided the opportunity for Mbuemo’s cross to Fosu-Henry and Dalsgaard’s bullet header from a corner. With more of a focus on where Toney is when the play has progressed into the opposition’s final third, opportunities like those taken this game are possible, with Toney being more of a necessary cog in the machine rather than the star man. In a game where Brentford actually didn’t have dominance in possession, we see that with David Raya being the third most combination with Toney the more direct approach that Brentford had towards this game in comparison to Bournemouth and their 54% of possession.
Who will he play for in the Premier League?
It’s clear that with Toney’s impressive performance this season, he will be playing in the Premier League next season.
Although Toney has displayed his dominance in the Championship this season, the same cannot be said for Brentford who, if Swansea win their games in hand, will be in the playoff places after some poor recent performances like the 2-0 losses from Coventry and Barnsley, and important games like the 1-0 loss to Norwich.
If this form continues and Brentford do end up in the playoffs again, even with the high performer in Toney on their side, for a team that has failed to gain promotion through the playoffs a national record of 9 times, it wouldn’t give many fans confidence coming into a playoff run with many high performing sides this season. In this particular future then, where Brentford fail to gain promotion through the playoffs and Brentford again become a side who sell on their talent every window, who does Toney go to?
Leicester City - Vardy 2.0?
With the growing concerns in the East Midlands side with the aging of their experienced poacher, Leicester City have been steadily linked with replacements since the 2017 season, from Slimani, to Ahmed Musa, to Iheanacho; none of which have been able to do so. With this rise of Toney over the season however, a glimmer of hope has appeared for Leicester City in find a clinical striker who, while he operates well in the box, can work as a sole striker bringing his midfield teammates into play.
Ivan Toney to Leicester Article
While it can a big step up for Championship players to make the step up into the Premier League, in a team like Leicester City managed by Brendan Rodgers, there is a proven track record of young players being introduced to the side like: Harvey Barnes, James Justin and Luke Thomas. With a very creative and reliable midfield, this could be the chosen one to take up the mantle of Leicester City starting striker over the Vards.
Brighton and Hove Albion - Can someone please finish our chances?!
Although they’ve brought in reinforcements to the front line in Danny Welbeck, had Neal Maupay producing his best season in the Premier League so far and have had the rest of their team chip in with goals in various games, Brighton still stand 2 places away from relegation as it stands. On top of this, Brighton manager Graham Potter has introduced an attacking style of play which has seen Brighton transform into an entertaining side for the neutrals at the moment (and it would be the same for the fans if it was working as it should).
What has clearly been the issue with Brighton this season is the goal scoring, regardless of everything they’ve done up to this point, it’s still not good enough. With an xG of 37.7 and an actual goal tally of 26, Brighton have missed out on many chances to establish a good distance from the fight against relegation in games like those against Manchester United; where they lost to the after-match penalty take thanks to VAR and Aaron Connolly’s goal-scoring shortcomings, or West Bromwich Albion; where a relegation rival somehow took all 3 points in a game full of drama from penalty kicks missed and goals disallowed due to referee inadequacies. While it can be down to pure bad luck, if this is a trend that Brighton are really hoping to address in some proactive way, then bringing in a player as ruthless in front of goal as Ivan Toney, into a side that creates an average of 20.8 shot creating actions per game, would be a significant step in the right direction in solving this clear problem.
Newcastle United - Come back and save my job, kind regards, Steve.
It’s a crucial moment in Newcastle United’s history right now. 3 points off the relegation places with a worse goal difference than the team below them, there are numerous problems with this Newcastle side that have developed over seasons of mismanagement and inadequate recruitment. What stands out as a clear issue with Steve Bruce’s side however is the lack of a goal scorer if, like right now, Callum Wilson is injured for a significant amount of time as he currently contributes to 55% of Newcastle’s goals so far this season. What sets Toney apart from Wilson however is his ability to drop deep and create as well as finish, also providing a solution to the creativity issues which are also clear in this side.
Although this is entirely dependent upon the survival of Newcastle United in the Premier League, a side which has recently lost its top goal scorer, experienced a bust up between player Matt Ritchie and Steve Bruce and is continuously growing the divide between the club and their fanbase, there’s a strong case for Toney to go back to where he started at Newcastle, where he’ll be valued and given the consistent playing time to establish himself into the league.
Regardless of what happens, what is clear, is that there’s never a dull day at Newcastle United in these times.
Thank you for giving my piece a read, if you have anything you want to share on the topic, drop a comment and let me know what you think.
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